No votes to university graduates

in «Politics & Human Rights» by moftasa

Warning! This post is very old and may contain information or opinions that are no longer valid or embarrassing.

graph showing a positive correlation 0.78 between percentage of no votes in each governerate to the percentage of university graduates in each governerate

This chart means that the governerate with a higher percentage of university graduates is more likely to vote no in the last referendum.

You can access referendum results here.

UPDATE: I uploaded an excel file with data from referendum and numbers of university graduates from CAPMAS. The data from CAPMAS is from 2006.

This is just a dump of one correlation found. I am trying to look for other interesting bits in this data.

Professor Tarek Masoud found a weaker correlation "between illiteracy and the likelihood that people voted yes on the constitutional referendum."

Comments

  • Moabdall

    Posted on - 🔗

    Correlation is not causation.

    where is your R2 value?

    • moftasa

      Posted on - 🔗

      R2 = 0.60

    • David Shor

      Posted on - 🔗

      R^2 = Correlation^2. Fun and useful fact.

  • Elbeltagy

    Posted on - 🔗

    I want to believe this plot. Do you have raw data and the references for the number of university graduates in each governerate?

    • moftasa

      Posted on - 🔗

      Yes, I'll try to get file from CAPMAS up. But the blog is acting a bit weird with uploads.

  • Amr

    Posted on - 🔗

    I am trying to get the results broken into smaller administrative units, either لجان انتخابية or شياخات و قرى. Have you come across this?

    • moftasa

      Posted on - 🔗

      Yes, only problem is that it's not in an easy to export table. A drop down
      list for every governerate. If you manage to get this info into a
      spreadsheet. Please share it.

      http://www.estefta2.eg/refe...

    • Amr

      Posted on - 🔗

      I saw these. These are only percentages and not numbers.

    • Elbeltagy

      Posted on - 🔗

      They have now updated the site... It seems like you download that data in excel or csv format.

    • Amr

      Posted on - 🔗

      Great. I spent the larger part of the day creating a similar CSV file. Now I will use this.

      Any chance to get more detailed breakup of the شياخات?

  • Semsemdavinci

    Posted on - 🔗

    Nice analysis; and it somehow supports, visually, what a some people have suggested. However, it should not be taken as an ultimate evidence that those who voted yes are necessarily just ignorant. Some would argue that statistics can be misleading and that you can infer whatever you choose from some amount of data!
    <3 data!